Handicapping the 2008 presidential races
I've been talking politics a bunch recently, and with Nightline now on the air babbling about the Pennsylvania primary in the other room, I thought I'd commit my thoughts to photons, for the rest of the world to mock.
First, the easy one: McCain has the Republican nomination. The key question for that party is: who will they pick to run for vice president. The "veepstakes" these days isn't always about who would be the best vice president, but rather who can pull in the greatest number of voters who wouldn't otherwise vote for this party. So McCain has to look for someone who isn't John McCain. In my mind, the choice is narrowed down to three (although I think he most recently said the list they were considering was about 20 names): Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Crist has executive experience—being the governor of a state—which all three senator-candidates lack in spades. He also has the advantage of being from a large state, and potentially a contentious one, given its history in the 2000 election, as well as the to-do over Florida's primaries this year. Jindal also has the executive experience, but he has the added advantage of not being a white guy: his parents were immigrants from India. That gives Jindal the "non-white" label so beloved in this year of "it's finally time we had someone other than an old white guy in the office," and yet he's not so black as to completely turn off the lesser bigots among us. Lieberman doesn't have the executive experience, being a senator himself, but he shakes up all the electoral math because he's a Democrat (or was; hard to tell since he lost the last primary and then beat the Democratic nominee for his seat). He's an aisle-crosser like McCain, so the two of them on a ticket would go a long way toward convincing the undecideds in the middle, as well as the liberals in both parties, to vote for them. If I had to pick one of the three (on the assumption that McCain won't be knocking on my door for the spot, though I may be available), I think Jindal would probably be the choice. In addition to his heritage, he also turns 37 this summer, completely balancing McCain's age.
The Democratic side of this to-do is harder. As we heard on tonight's news, Hillary Clinton "won" the primary in Pennsylvania today. The problem with that "win," as it has been for both her and Barack Obama the entire year, is that the Democratic Party's primaries are not winner-take-all. And this year, with the Dems' embarrassment of riches (the first serious female and the first serious black contender for the presidency), the primaries have been neck-and-neck, with the result that neither one of them will have a majority of the delegates locked up by the convention. As a political scientist, the idea of an open convention has me salivating for the spectacle: Finally, a convention that will actually be worth watching, rather than simply a scripted coronation. Unfortunately for the Democrats, and for Clinton and Obama, their party really is very evenly divided. This poll, or another like it, caught my eye recently. The finding I'm pointing to is where it says "in an Obama-McCain match-up, 14% of Democratic voters say they would support McCain, compared with 8% who would do so if Clinton is the nominee." That's a whole lot of Democrats who are so committed to their candidate that they really, really, don't want to see the other one nominated. And that is not good for the Democratic Party. [Update on 23 April at 11:30AM: See also this Time magazine analysis, which quotes a number of 43% of Clinton voters who say they won't vote for Obama.] For the past few weeks, my notion has been that neither one is going to be nominated. Forget the "dream ticket" of both of them: neither one could feasibly serve as the other's vice president (Patrick Healy said it rather well in today's New York Times). No, I'm not sure who's going to ask, or how, but I'm pretty sure that someone (or some group) is soon going to realize that their best bet is to turn to Al Gore (remember him?) and say "Please, come save the Party. Run for President, so we have a good chance of winning, and unite this divided crowd before our party goes the way of the dodo." I give Gore a better than 50% chance of being this year's Democratic nominee. Then, of course, all the polling of who will win whichever match-up gets thrown out the window. Gore vs. McCain strikes me as a pretty fair fight, and I don't know who'll win. Oh, but if Gore does get the nomination, he'll still need a vice presidential running mate. Again, I look first for executive experience, and I find Bill Richardson. Current Governor of New Mexico, former Cabinet Secretary, former ambassador (hell, he may have the most actual foreign policy experience out there, which ain't a bad thing to have). And he does, kind of, break the "old white guy" mold: he's Hispanic (three of his four grandparents were Mexican). He's probably the ideal vice presidential choice, no matter who gets the Democratic nomination, but if it's Gore in the top spot, he may just be a little too white. Which means Barack Obama may have to swallow his pride and sign up for a term or two as vice president to get the experience he needs to be more than just an inspiring speaker. Gore-Obama, now that's a ticket that would attract votes. I think it's likely… if there are enough cool, clear heads left in the Democratic Party's leadership who are more interested in winning than in making a spectacle.
So that's my analysis: I expect to go into the voting booth in November to see a Republican line for John McCain and Bobby Jindal, and a Democratic line for Al Gore and Barack Obama, and about ten other lines which will disappoint me (not for their presence, but for their appalling silence before the election, and also the complete disdain shown them by the established media, but that's another windmill). And y'know? I think I could actually be happy seeing those two sets of names on the ballot. I think I could be satisfied with either of them winning.
Presidential trivia considerations of my expected tickets: If John McCain is elected, he, at 71, will be the oldest man elected to a first term as president; he would also be the first national office holder born outside the 48 contiguous states (he was born in the Panama Canal Zone). If Bobby Jindal is elected vice president, he, at 37, would be the second youngest vice president (after John C. Breckinridge); he would also be the first national office holder of Asian descent. If Al Gore is elected president, he would be the second former vice president to come back to win the presidency eight years after losing the presidential election (Richard Nixon did the same thing); he would also be the first Nobel Prize winner to be elected president after winning the Prize. If Barack Obama is elected vice president, he would be the first national office holder of African descent; he would also be the first national office holder born outside the 48 contiguous states (he was born in Hawaii).
Well, it could happen. And if it does, remember, you read it here and laughed.
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ianrandalstrock) wrote,
